| | | | | | DANCE CARD | Stewart, Busch lead early set of contenders for Chase field | |
| | By Tom Bowles / SportsIllustrated.com The NCAA isn't the only sport trafficking the term "Sweet 16" this week.
Five races in, the top 16 drivers in the Sprint Cup standings look like a Who's Who of the sport's past, present and future. Every driver in the bunch has made the Chase at least once since 2005, and together they've combined to win seven championships, five Daytona 500s and more than 100 races this decade.
It's hard to find a weak link within this group; the field is so tightly bunched, it's looking like one small slip-up could be all that's needed to make the difference between making the 12-man Chase field -- and missing out. Case in point: Carl Edwards' 100-point penalty was enough to knock him down from 8th to 16th in the standings -- even though he's won 40 percent of the races to kick off the Sprint Cup season.
Yes, it's still early, but with a field of contenders like this, it's going to be a Herculean task for anyone outside the group to make the jump past five of these drivers and into a Chase slot. So, at a time when everyone's spending their nights checking brackets, it seemed appropriate to make a little bracket of our own ... seeding drivers 1 to 16 to find out who's in the best position to make the playoffs out of this group, and who's got the toughest road ahead.
No. 1: Kyle Busch. Busch has been on fire to start '08, leading the points in both the Cup and Craftsman Truck Series while contending for wins in just about every race he's entered. On the Cup side, he'd have nearly a 100-point lead if not for a power steering problem at Bristol that caused him to spin while leading. With a win under his belt already and, more important, the desire to prove his release from Hendrick was a mistake, it's incredibly difficult to see Busch missing the playoffs at this point. Not only that, but he's made a statement that six months from now, this team may very well be the one to beat -- putting Toyota in position to win its first Sprint Cup title.
No. 2: Tony Stewart. Stewart has made headlines this season more for his off-track tirades than on-track escapades; his well-publicized tirade against Goodyear has overshadowed everything else he's done this season. Quietly, though, Stewart's fought his way to seventh in the early season standings with two top-5 finishes; that's important to note, because this team typically doesn't get going until sometime in May or June. Usually, it's that summer hot streak that propels Stewart into solid position for the Chase. If he's this good this early, getting knocked out of the field is highly unlikely.
No. 3: Jeff Burton. "Mr. Consistent" has come out of the box strong; with no finish lower than 13th in five races, the veteran's become a master at bringing his car home in one piece. Fourth in points, Burton is part of a resurgent RCR stable that again has three drivers in the top 12. Of those three, the experience and savvy of the No. 31 team makes it most likely to stay there after building an early cushion.
No. 4: Kevin Harvick. The '07 Daytona 500 winner struggled in his bid to repeat, but in every race thereafter, the No. 29 has been stellar. Third in the standings and just 33 off the lead, Harvick's even performed well at places he shouldn't; at Atlanta, he scored his first top 10 at the track in seven years. While consistency hasn't always been the hallmark of this program, it seems RCR has the best handle of all the Chevy teams on the Car of Tomorrow, and that should be enough to offset any bumps in the road later on this year.
No. 5: Dale Earnhardt Jr. Other than Busch's dominance, the performance of Junior this early has to be considered a bit of a surprise. Fifth in points, the No. 88 has been remarkably consistent. And while the rest of Hendrick Motorsports has struggled, Tony Eury Jr. and company have shined, even at their Achilles' heel: intermediate tracks. Certainly, the toughness of this year's contenders makes you worry about how Junior will respond to the pressure as the year wears on -- he's only made the Chase two times the past four seasons. But all signs point to the other Hendrick teams getting their act together in the coming weeks; when they do, it's bound to benefit Junior's program.
No. 6: Jeff Gordon. Don't be fooled by this team's 14th place slot in the standings; Gordon's performed far better than that. Two DNFs to start the year are already one more than the No. 24 had throughout all of '07. Take them away and replace them with the top-5 finish Gordon would have had in each case, and he jumps up to second in points behind Kyle Busch. Unlike Jimmie Johnson's No. 48, this team certainly looks like it's in no need of fixing. Expect a solid run at Martinsville -- one of Gordon's favorite tracks -- to spark a streak that will have the No. 24 feeling comfy in the Chase by late spring.
No. 7: Matt Kenseth. As the season began, questions surrounded Kenseth and how he'd react to new crew chief Chip Bolin, but so far, the team hasn't skipped a beat. Kenseth was a contender to win Las Vegas before being wrecked by Gordon, and he's clearly benefited from a Roush Fenway Racing resurgence that has three of their cars in the top 12. Currently 11th in the standings, this team is another one that's performed well historically in the second half of the year; the team came from 23rd in points to make the Chase in '05. Don't expect them to be the guys that give up their spot.
No. 8: Greg Biffle. Biffle's currently second in points, and it's clear crew chief Greg Erwin has this program back on track after a few years in the dumps. But there are still a few questions to be answered as the season goes on. How will the team respond to being in the Chase hunt for the first time in three years? And will Biffle's contract -- still up in the air -- cause a distraction as the season progresses? In a year in which every little bump in the road could make a difference, Biffle would be wise to build a cushion in the next four to six weeks ... just in case.
No. 9: Jimmie Johnson. Word out of the No. 48 camp is that their slow start to the season is no reason to worry. Johnson crew chief Chad Knaus and company are simply experimenting with some setups they hope will help them in September. But that's where this team needs to be careful; assuming it'll be in the Chase before it has actually earned a spot is a pretty bold statement to make. At 13th in the standings, there's a fine line between planning for the future and getting too cocky. With the competition tight, this team would be wise to tighten up for a month and click off the runs they need to earn a spot before the summertime -- typically when this team hits a speed bump.
No. 10: Carl Edwards. How can you win two of five races and be 16th in points? Penalties and DNFs have put Edwards in a bit of a tough spot. This team is probably the second best in Cup other than Busch right now. But there's an old saying that you need to make the most of your opportunities, and Edwards hasn't capitalized on some strong early season performances. That leaves the No. 99 no margin for error down the road. For them to knock someone out of the top 12, the word "slump" is simply not an option. It's possible Edwards can keep this momentum going, but he's certainly made things a lot harder on himself.
No. 11: Kurt Busch. Busch's chemistry with crew chief Pat Tryson was so strong by the end of '07, most expected them to dominate the early part of '08. But for a myriad of reasons, that hasn't happened. Instead, Busch's team has shot themselves in the foot in several races, fighting back from a myriad of pit road penalties and early handling problems. It's hard to believe the '04 Cup champ would miss the Chase after the momentum he established the end of last year; but right now, it's clear his team's got some work to do.
No. 12: Clint Bowyer. Last year's Cinderella is suffering from the letdown of raised expectations. Despite a third at Bristol, Bowyer is ninth in points and hasn't performed as well as his two RCR teammates. In only his third full season, the young driver's a bit of an unknown, but after playing it safe last year to make the Chase, offseason murmurs were that the team would get more aggressive in '08. So far, that hasn't been the case, and that's going to need to change in order to stay ahead of the pack.
No. 13: Kasey Kahne. Kahne's done a great job of turning his team around after a '07 disaster of a season. In just five races, he has four top 10s. But to make the Chase, at some point you're going to have to run up front; and what's a bit troubling is Kahne's top 5 and laps led totals, numbers which currently stand at zero and three, respectively. In fact, Kahne has just one top 5 since the start of the '07 season; that alone is enough to make him vulnerable to the rest of the competition.
No. 14: Ryan Newman. The '08 Daytona 500 champ is fighting a bit of a jinx. Since the dawn of the Chase, only two of the four 500 winners in that span have made the playoffs, and a third, Harvick, squeaked in. Right now, it does appear the media frenzy following that victory has thrown the No. 12 a bit of a curve. The team is on a disturbing pattern of finishing each race worse than the one before it. The last one of those was a 33rd in Bristol, pushing Newman down to eighth in the standings, and that's without a DNF to his credit yet. Seeing as this team had nine last year -- and it's in Newman's nature to crash a time or two -- they look like one of the teams more likely to be knocked out.
No. 15: Denny Hamlin. Now third in line at Gibbs behind teammates Stewart and Busch, Hamlin's suffered from some bad luck that has him lagging behind the curve. Whether it's a fuel pickup problem or contact on pit road, mistakes are being made that are taking him out of races -- and that's hurt his confidence. Hamlin came out after Bristol and said he felt "cursed." That's not the type of pessimism this team needs to turn it around when they're already 15th in points.
No. 16: Martin Truex Jr. The best of the four-car DEI stable, Truex hasn't looked like the driver who dominated Dover last June. With just two top-15 finishes, he's clinging to 12th in the standings with a team that looks overmatched when considering the competition surrounding him. Unless the man can get a little help from his friends -- none of DEI's other programs are in position to even challenge for the Chase at the moment -- Truex is clearly the underdog among this 16-man group.
| | Posted March 28, 2008 , 12:02 pm EST
Last Updated March 28, 2008 , 12:03 pm EST | | | | | | | | | | |
